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Slow Growth Rates projected for Sub-Saharan Africa: Ebola-affected Countries worst of all

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Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has been projected by the World Bank to slow to 4.0 percent in 2015, with even slower rates for Liberia with 3.0 and -0.2 for Sierra Leone and Guinea.

The Bank in this year’s annual report on the state of Africa’s economy—“Africa’s Purse”—released in Washington Monday, USA at the start of its 2015 Spring Meetings, blamed the continent’s dependence on primary commodities (iron ore, oil palm and crude oil) and the sharp fall in these commodities.

“The transmission of the commodity price shock through the current account. Thus, sharply lower oil prices will reduce export earnings of oil exporters and put pressure on the current account balance and the exchange rate (by contract, lower oil prices will reduce pressure on the current account of oil importers). If the nominal exchange rate is allowed to adjust, that is depreciate, this will make other exports more competitive and boost activities in the tradable goods sectors. The depreciation of currency, in turn, raises the price of imported goods, pushing up inflation. The implication for second round effects on higher price of imported goods will depend on the stance of monetary policy. Lower oil prices will also reduce fiscal revenues from oil, putting pressure on fiscal balances,” the report says.

The report further says Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia stand to lose significant portion gross domestic product (GDP)—Liberia $180 million, Sierra Leone $920 million and Guinea $540 million. It projects via mobile phone surveys significant unemployment in Liberia and small enterprise closures in Sierra Leone.

“As of late March 2015, the cumulative number of cases neared 25,000 and deaths surpassed 10,000. Over the course of 2014, Ebola killed roughly twice as many people as malaria in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and it killed about the same number of tuberculosis, even without taking likely undercounting of Ebola deaths into account.

“Furthermore, the economic impact in those countries has been massive. In the second half of 2014, all three countries saw flat or negative income growth. Forecasts for 2015, with ongoing investor aversion, are sobering, with contractions in Guinea and Sierra Leone, and projected growth in Liberia less than half what was predicted before the crisis,” the report adds.

One of the authors of the report, Punam Chuhan-Pole told the news conference on the release of the report said Ebola-affected countries would find it “difficult moving forward” but said they could make a strong recovery if they carry on structural reforms on their economies—moving from a primary market-based economies to those of diverse economies but investing in secondary commodities as well as reduce barriers to trading in these commodities.