Monrovia, September 23, 2014: The Government of Liberia has welcomed the predictive tool released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States (CDC). This instrument is intended to help measure our progress in the ongoing fight against the Ebola epidemic.

According to a MICAT Release, the Ebola Response Model predicts what could happen if we do nothing, and importantly, how, overtime, we can measure positive changes in the state of the Ebola fight by taking good public health actions, such as those described in the National Ebola Response Plan of the Government.

Quoting the CDC publication, the MICAT release added that the published estimates of the CDC are based on data only up to August 28, and assumes that both the Government and the international community will do nothing more than had been done up to that date.

Information Minister Lewis Brown disclosed that understanding the range between the potential worst outcome and the best outcome gives the government and its partners more information about the steps we need to take to win this fight in the shortest possible time.

“The information in this report will help the government and its partners not only in terms of focusing on the ongoing fight but also in making the case internationally for greater and more urgent support to fight the worst Ebola epidemic in history. We intend to use this tool of the CDC to continuously measure our collective efforts and progress”, the MICAT Boss said.

Pointing to the fact that the estimates of the CDC are based on data collected more than three weeks ago, the Chief Spokesman of the Liberian Government reminded that steps have already been taken since the end of August not to realize the worst-case predicted outcomes in the report. The Minister named such steps to include the addition of beds in Ebola Treatment Units at ELWA II and the JFK since the end of August, the conversion of Redemption Hospital into a 105-bed Holding Center, as well as the newly-opened 150-bed Unit at the Island Clinic which will positively affect the predicted estimates were these to be included in the report. 

Other actions of the Government and partners, according to Minister Brown which will positively affect the current predictions when added include the fact that bodies are more rapidly removed than 2 weeks ago because of the increase and zonal locations of burial teams, as well as the training of hundreds of community health volunteers including teachers to help our people take steps to protect their health. Minister Brown disclosed that these trainings and mobilization of communities are ongoing and will continue across the country.

According to the Liberian Information Minister, the Liberian Government is working with the CDC to add these and other important information about progress into the Ebola Response Model. “By entering those facts, we will be able to get a full picture, as well as update the estimate regularly so as to reflect the expected effect of public health actions taken by the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare and its partners in the ongoing fight. As soon as we add that information to the prediction tool, the updated projections will be shared”, Minister Brown disclosed.

Meanwhile, the predictive model of the CDC has revealed that people who are in Ebola Treatment Units OR who are kept in their own areas, away from others and at home while new units are being built infect less than one person on the average. People who are not separated from others while they are sick, risk infecting about 2 other persons.

According to Minister Brown, this finding further confirms the urgent need to keep sick people away from those who are not sick, saying, “This continues to be one of the most important steps we can take to win this fight. If people have a sick person at home, they need to find a way to keep that person in their own place, away from others, so as to protect the rest of the family, and other people who may be living in the same house, until the health team arrives.”

The Liberian Information Minister reminded Liberians that ending this Ebola epidemic will take some time. He however revealed that the Liberian Government and its partners are adding Ebola Treatment Units and taking all necessary measures including programs of community ownership to shorten the time.

Citing the CDC Report, the MICAT Boss observed that the predictive model proves that once a Tipping Point is reached, cases will decline about as rapidly as they have increased noting that “gains below the tipping point can also significantly reduce cases.”

Working together, we will defeat Ebola, the MICAT release concluded.

The media can find out more on the CDC’s press release here: www.cdc.gov/media

Technical Note: Explaining the Analysis 

• This is the first report to account for underreporting of data. Underreporting is common in any disease outbreak. Underreporting can give us a false sense of security, because we then lack a true picture of what we are facing. We believe it is better to know the worst that could happen so we can prepare for that and also know how big a job is ahead of us. It would be far worse if we underestimated the magnitude of our challenge.

• The numbers reported in this report are very similar to those other organizations have reported.  The main difference is that the CDC corrected its estimates to account for the possibility of underreporting of cases. This gives us a better picture of the public health challenge.

o   We already know that not all cases in Liberia have been reported. In many parts of the country, unexpected barriers stand in the way of timely reporting.

o   The Government is working with CDC on an even more efficient data system to help us make reporting cases faster and more precise.

Messaging Note 2: Messages for the Community

• Together we can stop the spread of Ebola. You can survive Ebola. Know the signs and symptoms. Tell your community leader if someone you know has symptoms. Call 4455 to report if someone has symptoms of Ebola. Do NOT run away or hide sick people. Only by telling someone about Ebola in your family can you get care as soon as it is available.

• You can help stop Ebola. We are asking every citizen and resident of Liberia to know the signs and symptoms. Tell your community leader if someone you know has symptoms. Call 4455 to report if someone has symptoms of Ebola. Do NOT run away or hide sick people. Only by telling someone about Ebola in your family can you get care as soon as it is available.

• You can protect yourself against Ebola by washing your hands often with soap and clean water or chlorine water.

• You can protect your family from Ebola by knowing the signs and keeping the sick person in their own area. Do not touch the sick person or anything they have touched, like clothes or blankets. Call 4455 to tell them you know someone who is sick. 

• You can protect your community from Ebola by telling your community leader if a family member has signs or symptoms of Ebola. Do not run away or hide sick people. Do not wash, touch, or bury any person who has died with signs and symptoms of Ebola. Call 4455 for help.

• The signs and symptoms of Ebola look like other sicknesses. Call 4455 if a family member has a fever and any of these signs: weakness, vomiting, running stomach, rash or bumps on their skin, red eyes, bleeding from the nose or mouth.